It’s on! Prime Minister calls general election for 21 May
- paulbini
- Apr 10, 2022
- 8 min read
The Prime Minister has now formally requested the Governor General issue the writs for an Australian general election on 21 May 2022. The election will be for all House of Representatives seats and half of the Senate.
Throughout the election campaign, Crisis&Comms Co will bring you insights and analysis on the race. We’ll discuss some of the key facts and events of the election and the most important policy and electoral issues around the campaign.
In this edition we look at:
The Numbers
To form government, a party must be able to rely on the confidence of at least 76 of the 151 members of the House of Representatives.
Current State of the Parliament
House of Representatives
Government (Liberals & Nationals) 76
Opposition (Labor) 68
Independents 3
Australian Greens 1
Katter’s Australian Party 1
Centre Alliance 1
United Australia Party 1
Total Members 151 (majority = 76)
Senate
Government 36
Opposition 26
Australian Greens 9
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 2
Centre Alliance 1
Jacqui Lambie Network 1
Independents 1
Total Senators 76 (majority = 39)
What they need to win Government and potential deals for support
Liberal and National Parties
The Government holds a bare majority in the House of Representatives with 76 seats. The Government’s 2019 election majority was reduced with the defection of Mr Craig Kelly from the Liberal Party to the United Australia Party.
A net result of 76 seats is sufficient for the Liberal and National Party Coalition to retain government. In the event a Coalition loss of one seat, it would likely seek to rely on the support of right-wing Member for Kennedy, the Hon Mr Bob Katter. This would require significant concessions to Mr Katter.
Australian Labor Party
To win government, the ALP must hold its current seats and win an additional eight seats. This is a relatively tall order in Australian politics. Incumbency is a significant advantage, with strong local seat-by-seat campaigns able to limit and potentially reverse anti-government swings.
In the event of an opportunity to form minority government, the ALP would try to avoid an agreement requiring the support of the Australian Greens. The party would prefer a politically more mainstream partnership with independents such as Member for Denison Andrew Wilkie (TAS), Member for Indi Helen Haines (VIC) or Member for Waringah, Zali Steggall (NSW). The MPs could conceivably be open to an agreement to support an ALP Government based on introduction of a federal anti-corruption commission and commitments around climate change and expanded government renewables investments.
The Polling
Public polling data has come to be viewed with extreme scepticism by political strategists and insiders, particularly following very substantial inaccuracies in polling at both the 2016 and 2019 elections, when compared with the final result.
Whether due to sampling errors, respondent behaviour, or large undecided voter numbers, polling data has been shown wanting.
With this in mind, most current opinion poll data indicates a solid lead for the Australian Labor Party.
A recent Newspoll gave the ALP the lead with 54% to 46% for the Coalition.
A large sample size AFR Ipsos poll gave the Government 31% primary vote, Labor 35% and the Greens 10%. On a two-party preferred basis this translated to 48% to Labor, 37% to the Coalition and 15% undecided – indicating a lead for Labor, but far from solid ground.
An Essential Research poll on voting intentions published on 5 April 2022 found the Coalition primary vote steady on 37%, Labor down one to 36%, the Greens up one to 10%, One Nation up one to 4% and the United Australia Party up one to 3%. Based on the pollster’s methodology this poll gave the ALP 50%, the Coalition 45% and an undecided of 5%.
Public polling is currently tracking to indicate a majority for the Opposition. However voting intentions tend to narrow significantly during the general election campaign period. It is also important to remember that elections are won with a majority of parliamentary seats. In 1998 the ALP won nearly 51% of the popular vote, but was 14 seats short of a majority on the floor of Parliament.
Seats to Watch
ABC psephologist Antony Green has published an electoral pendulum here.
We identify and review, state-by-state, some of the seats likely to be targeted by the major parties.
LABOR TARGETS
Based on margins and polling, the following seats are those the ALP is likely to focus on to win at least eight government seats.
New South Wales
Reid – Margin 3.2% - Reid may have become a bellwether seat, likely to be held by the government of the day. Boundary changes and increased LNP leaning voting sentiment generally have favoured Liberal governments since 2013.
Robertson - Margin - 4.2% - This is a firm bellwether seat, having been won by the party forming government since 1983. The seat has some of the fastest growing communities in the country with many commuting daily to work in Sydney. Cost of living pressures will feature prominently in the campaign for this electorate.
Lindsay – 5.0% - To the west of Paramatta, Lindsay was once considered a safe Labor seat. However demographic and aspirational changes have seen the seat change hands regularly since 1993. While Labor gained the seat in 2016, the party lost it again in 2019 due to accusations and allegations surrounding resigning MP, Emma Husar.
Victoria
Chisholm – Margin 0.5% - held by controversial MP Gladys Liu since 2019. Mrs Liu’s campaign was found by the Court of Disputed Returns to have used misleading Chinese language signage during the 2019 election. The seat’s boundaries have been regularly redrawn and will be a very tight and hard-fought contest.
Queensland
Longman - Margin 3.3% - Won by the LNP at the 2019 election, with a 4% swing. The seat has changed hands four times since 2004. Considered a ‘likely’ win for the ALP by many commentators and insiders.
Brisbane – Margin 4.9% - Based around the Brisbane inner city, mostly affluent and educated suburbs, Brisbane is one of two Queensland seats experiencing significant growth in the Greens vote. Provided the ALP is able to stay ahead of the Greens vote on first preferences, the party has a chance of winning the seat for the first time since 2007.
Flynn – Margin 8.7% - While the seat has a notionally ‘safe’ margin, the incumbent Nationals MP is retiring, while the seat's Labor challenger is the popular Mayor of the seat’s largest population centre, Gladstone.
Leichardt - Margin 4.2% - Based around Cairns in Far North Queensland, the vast seat takes in the whole of Cape York. The region is heavily reliant on tourism and has experienced some of the heaviest economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic.
South Australia
Boothby – Margin 1.4% - This seat will be an open contest with sitting MP, Nicolle Flint retiring amid claims of misogyny and sexual harassment. A recent South Australian State election saw a landslide Labor victory. Despite its now marginal status, the seat was last won by the Labor Party in 1946. A poll of the seat published by News Limited found it was too close to call, but also the LNP the Liberal Party seven points down on its primary, while the ALP had gained one point.
Tasmania
Bass (0.4%) and Braddon (3.1%) Both seats are in Tasmania’s north which have changed hands many times in recent elections. Bass is the most marginal LNP held seat, while Braddon is the LNP’s fifth most marginal. Both seats traditionally attract significant project ad infrastructure promises at federal election time. A poll of the seat of Bass published by News Limited found incumbent Bridget Archer on track to retain the seat.
Western Australia
Swan – Margin 3.2% - Retiring MP Steve Irons has managed to hold the seat despite previous unfavourable redistributions. A generally positive mood toward the Labor brand in the state makes the seat a target for Labor. A poll of the seat published by News Limited indicated that the Liberal Party had lost over 13% on its primary vote, while Labor had picked up just under 4%, but found the seat too close to call.
Pearce – Margin 5.2% - This is an open contest with the resignation of controversial MP and former Attorney-General, the Hon Christian Porter. 95% of the area of Pearce has changed due to redistribution since the last election. Most notably the seat has lost large regional and rural areas and become a predominantly urban and suburban seat. Local published polling indicates a 10% Labor lead.
Hasluck – Margin 5.9% - The seat has moved marginally toward the Liberal Party, based on its most recent redistribution. This seat has perennially been in the Labor ‘winnable’ column, but has been won by the Liberal Party at five of the last seven elections. The seats is currently on its largest margin in 20 years, with prior margins of under 2% being the norm.
COALITION TARGETS
State-by-State, the following sets out some of the key seats to LNP will be targeting, particularly to offset any anticipated losses to Labor.
New South Wales
Macquarie – Margin 0.2% - Labor’s most marginal seat was won by only 371 votes in 2019. Over the last six terms of parliament, this seat has had three terms each in Liberal and Labor hands.
Dobell – Margin 1.5% - On the NSW Central Coast, this seat has generally held by Labor, though more recently on small margins. The seat is heavily influenced by cost-of-living concerns.
Gilmore – Margin 2.6% - This seat went against the NSW trend in 2019, with a swing to Labor due to a crowded field on the conservative side of politics including a captain’s pick by Mr Morrison. Former NSW Cabinet Minister Andrew Constance is a very strong contender for the seat, although the by-election in his former State seat of Bega resulted in a Labor win for the first time. A poll of the seat published by News Limited found the seat too close to call.
Greenway – Margin 2.8% - This seat has only been held by the Liberal Party twice since it was established in 1984, but has experienced big swings due to redistributions. Sitting member Michelle Rowland is high profile and has campaigned strongly on vaccination hubs and the treatment of Western Sydney during lockdowns and a new hospital.
Paramatta – Margin 3.5% - Retiring MP Julie Owens has been replaced by late pre-selection choice and star candidate Andrew Charlton. The result in Paramatta is heavily reliant on redistributions, but the seat has remained with Labor since 2004. Much will depend on how Mr Charlton fares during the campaign.
Victoria
Corangamite – Margin 1.1% - While the seat has had a predominantly Liberal-held history, recent redistributions have seen the seat shrink in geographic size, losing rural, conservative voting areas. Green and minor party preferences are likely to have a significant impact on the outcome.
Dunkley – Margin 2.7% - Sitting Labor MP Peta Murphy was first elected in 2019 and the seat was one of the party’s few wins at that election. Peta Murphy has reportedly been an active local MP, but is being met by a strong challenger. Liberal candidate Sharn Coombes is a barrister and is aptly a former contestant on TV show Survivor.
Western Australia
Cowan – Margin 0.9% - High profile Labor MP Anne Aly, will hope to benefit from a popular Labor State Government and will hope to enjoy a general swing to the ALP brand in the west. Regardless, on such a tight margin the Liberal Party will consider the seat a target.
Northern Territory
Lingiari – Margin 5.5% - With the resignation of long time Labor stalwart, Warren Snowdon, this seat is wide open. With the electorate covering 99.9% the Northern Territory's land area, strong organisation and ground game are key. Over two thirds of votes are accounted for by remote mobile booths and pre-polling, with only one quarter of votes cast on polling day. The electorate is a combination of south Darwin, and rural and regional communities which generally favour the Country Liberal Party, and Indigenous Communities which heavily favour Labor.
INDEPENDENT TARGETS
Victoria and NSW
Liberal Held seats Kooyong (6.4%), Higgins (3.7%), Goldstein (7.8%), La Trobe (5.5%) in Victoria; and Wentworth (1.3%) and North Sydney (9.3%) in NSW
The colour teal is made by equally combining blue and green. Teal independent candidates generally come from Liberal, wealthy or ‘establishment’ backgrounds. They are standing in Blue Ribbon Liberal seats due to concerns about a lack of action by the current Government on environmental issues, especially climate change.
Some of these candidates are reportedly funded and supported by the Climate 200 group which is founded by investor, philanthropist and climate activist, Mr Simon Holmes à Court.
In a sign of how serious these campaigns are, their Facebook and Instagram spending has exceeded even the spend on these channels by billionaire Mr Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
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