Australia Decides: Prediction Edition

The 2022 Australian federal election campaign has been grinding and fierce.

Each side has fought hard for every inch of political advantage.

With his back against the wall, the Prime Minister has shown himself again to be a spirited, energetic campaigner who will never say die. He has met every attack and come out swinging in the final week. His appearance on the ABC’s 7.30 demonstrated all of these qualities but was a surprisingly polite affair.

The Leader of the Opposition has run a disciplined and passionate campaign where he has maintained attacks on the Government, while arguing for “Labor values” including a 5.1% increase to the minimum wage, and at the same time he has come to be better known by the Australian electorate.

New Polling

New polling continues to roll in. On May 17 Roy Morgan research published a poll showing a potentially over-stated 53 to 47 advantage to Labor.

Also on May 17 a Resolve Political Monitor Poll published in the SMH and the Age indicates a 1% increase in the Coalition's primary vote, and significantly a 3% drop for Labor. Uncommitted voters remain high at 14%. The poll still shows the LNP 7 points behind its 2019 primary vote of 41%, and probably again overstates the Greens primary which has been polled at 14%.

Labor is ahead on the poll's 2-party preferred estimate, 51 to 49. If the Prime Minister wins against the odds on Saturday however, Resolve may have detected a late change in sentiment and will become the new gold standard for Australian political polling.

Our Prediction

While the last two days of the campaign - including election costings and other potential controversies - could alter the result, Crisis&Comms Co is ready to make a prediction.

Our call is for Labor to win the most seats with between 72 and 80 seats. Our highest conviction is for Labor to win 78 seats.

While the Liberal and National Parties are by no means out of the race, our most likely expectation is for seats in the high 50s to the mid-60s, with our highest conviction to be for 65 seats. A Coalition majority government appears highly unlikely, though a minority government remains possible.

What makes up this prediction?

Our prediction is based on the LNP losing three or more seats to Teal Independents, and losing seats to Labor in WA (2), NSW (2 to 3), SA (1) Victoria (1 to 2) and Tasmania (1).

In QLD the government is on track to lose two or three seats, potentially to Labor but with three cornered contests in Brisbane and Ryan, exactly where these seats will land is an open question.

What could upset this prediction?

The Prime Minister’s famous campaigning energy has seen him criss-crossing the country over the last week to regional and outer metropolitan seats like Blair and Leichardt in Queensland, Deakin, Latrobe, Chisholm, McEwen, Corangamite and Casey in Victoria, Parramatta, Shortland and Robertson in NSW, and Bass and Lyons in Tasmania.

These seats all have in common a potential “quiet Australian” vote from people unwilling to tell polling organisations what they are thinking. They are all must-hold or must-win seats for Mr Morrison, particularly given the likelihood of losses to Teal Independents and Labor elsewhere.

The question is whether Mr Morrison and his strategists and pollsters have a plan to thread a rope through a narrowing needle, or whether he is simply throwing every ounce of energy at this election in the hope of another upset. Either way it could work.

There is also the chance of some last-minute seismic, black swan event which completely changes the game. A moment late in the campaign, so damaging for either leader that the election turns on a dime, making all prognostications moot.

Now and 2019 – what is different?

The 2019 result surprised almost everyone, the polls were wrong, the opinion leaders were wrong. So, what is different this time?

First in 2019 the polls indicated an inexorable narrowing of the opinion poll numbers, right from the start of the campaign. During the 2022 campaign Labor’s trend lead has remained reasonably consistent, and in some polls has widened marginally during the course of this great democratic journey. The exception to this is the Resolve Poll, discussed above.

Second, Mr Morrison’s criticisms of Labor have just not ‘hit like they used to.’ In 2019, day-after-day, Mr Morrison and his team had a long menu of detailed Labor initiatives to masterfully slice and dice into policy fear and incomprehensibility. Labor’s manifesto this time is tight, focused and modest. Mr Morrison is playing the same tactics, but against a different team and in different conditions.

Third, bad luck. Key electoral strengths for the Liberal and National Parties such as national security and defence, and economic management have been dented and disrupted by key events. The Solomon Islands/China defence pact together with a mid-campaign inflation spike and interest rate rise have placed the Government on the defensive, As they say in politics, if you’re explaining, you’re losing.

Four, there is a vibe. For all his vim and vigour, Mr Morrison is swimming into a very strong current of negative public sentiment. He has also struggled with a trust deficit, damaged by Hawaii, “I don’t hold a hose”; “It’s not my job” and in his own words, people seeing him as a bulldozer. There have been other less kind characterisations.

On top of all of this, there were many reflections on his character from his party and parliamentary colleagues prior to the commencement of the campaign.

Mr Albanese has put forward a credible, impassioned but measured alternative, and as Andrew Bolt recently said, “He does not scare people.” There have been gaffes and mistakes, but his campaign has become tighter and more focused day-by-day, while managing a 30-strong media pack heavily populated by the aggressive reporters looking for a "kill".

Televised Leader Debates – Who won?

Mr Albanese won the first and third debates conclusively based on audiences of undecided voters. It may be surprising that Mr Morrison lost the third debate despite his office being provided a leaked a summary of the panel’s questions in advance, according to the Australian’s Alice Workman.

Perhaps this is an indication of what it takes to win a debate. It is not about getting the answers right – if that was the case then the “cheat sheet” Mr Morrison’s office reportedly received would have been a big advantage. Instead, it is about authentically and genuinely connecting on the issues that are important to the voting public.

It is incredibly important that our leaders are seen as competent and have the intelligence, knowledge and experience to lead – but that is not enough. As the American’s say, that is “table stakes”. Political leadership is about connecting, understanding, building consensus and achieving the "Art of the possible".

Mr Albanese was able to communicate these qualities during the debates.

For completeness, there was a second debate. It was a rancid bin-fire, where mutually assured destruction was the theme of the evening. Let’s please just forget the second debate ever happened.

What's next?

Newspoll is expected to publish its final poll of the campaign on the election eve. As noted above, if this poll also shows a tightening of the race, then the prospect of a minority government increases markedly.

Voting

On 21 May booths open at 8am and close at 6pm. Any voter who is in the polling place before it closes will be allowed to complete their vote. Go to aec.gov.au for more information.

We hope you have enjoyed this coverage of the 2022 election campaign. Please, enjoy a democracy sausage on Saturday and bask in the glory of our prosperous, safe, united, fair and progressive nation.

May Australia be the winner on Saturday!