Australia Decides: Edition 3

In this edition, Crisis&Comms Co looks at the key events from week 2 of the campaign.

We’ll also take a deeper dive on some of the wildcard demographic shifts occurring in Australia which may have an impact on the election outcome. We also consider why the Liberal candidate for Waringah is receiving so much attention.

Key Events

The Leaders Debate

There were two key take-outs from the debate.

First, the Leader of the Opposition presented a strong and effective performance, up against Mr Morrison’s very polished and well briefed debate style. Mr Albanese potentially benefitted from lowered expectations in the same way former US President George W Bush did against Al Gore in 2000, and Tony Abbott did against Kevin Rudd in 2013.

Second, while the 100-strong audience of ‘undecided voters’ narrowly gave the win to Mr Albanese, 40 to 35; a full quarter of those who attended left the event undecided. This may well be a faithful reflection of public sentiment, and a clear sign that this contest is very much up for grabs.

The standout moments were:

• In response to a question from the mother of a four-year old autistic boy who was asking about cuts to NDIS funding, Mr Morrison responded that "Jenny and I have been blessed. We've got two children who haven't had to go through that."

• Mr Morrison asked Mr Albanese why the ALP had not supported ‘boat turnbacks’ when in government. After some awkward moments, Mr Albanese accepted that they had not, but that the ALP now supports the policy.

• Mr Morrison asked why the ALP was taking China’s side in relation to a security pact signed between China and the Solomon Islands. The Prime Minister’s question was consistent with his willingness to overreach on security issues and China. While not picked-up by the broadcast's audio, Sky News commentators said that the live audience had uttered an ‘audible groan’ when the Prime Minister attempted to position Labor as siding with China.

The questions, which were generated by the 100 undecided voters in attendance, tended to favour the ALP. The topics covered included:

• Housing Affordability

• National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS)

• Independent Anti-Corruption Commission

• Disaster preparedness

• Nurses and carers

• Border Protection and Asylum Seeker policy

• Electric vehicles

• Scare campaigns

• Minority Government

• National Security and

• Disillusionment among younger voters.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare. (Credit AP)

Security and the Solomons

The governments of the Solomon Islands and the People's Republic of China have now signed a security agreement. The agreement will involve China in maintaining social order, protecting people's safety, aid, combating natural disasters and helping safeguard national security.

While there is no formal agreement for a Chinese military base in the Pacific nation, there is a strong likelihood of ‘mission creep’ resulting from the agreement – potentially commencing with a future deployment of troops providing a foothold toward a more permanent and concrete presence of the PRC over time.

Labor Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Senator Penny Wong, called it “…the worst foreign policy blunder in the Pacific that Australia has seen since the end of World War II."

Deeper Dives

The demographic picture of Australia – interstate migration wild card?

So, what demographic changes have occurred since 2019 which may influence the election outcome? - The short answer is “A lot!”

With apologies, what follows is unavoidably, a bit of a number salad!

• Australians’ median age increased from 32.1 years in 1990 to 37.8 years by 2020.

• 30% of the population were born overseas.

• Interstate migration is something of a wildcard for the election result, as according to the Federal Budget, over the last two years:

  • 57,000 people left NSW.

  • 35,600 people left Victoria.

  • Mostly due to interstate migration, the Queensland population grew by nearly 72,000.

  • Between 2019 and 2022 the number of electors enrolled in Queensland grew by over 250,000.

  • Meanwhile 700,000 voters enrolled to vote in the week before the electoral roll closed. Perhaps 140,000 of those were in Queensland.

So what does all this mean?

First we'll estimate a net increase to the Queensland roll by around 400,000 since the last election. If we then consider that the two party preferred margin across the four most marginal government seats in the State totals around only 33,000 votes, it is conceivable that these population shifts will weigh heavily on the final result.

In particular watch out for the population growth in the seat of Brisbane when the electoral commission releases official figures. In the event of a swing against the government and a large new cohort of voters from the southern states, sitting member Trevor Evans’ handsome 10,000 vote advantage could become vanishingly thin. Also look out for the impact of population shifts on the seat of Ryan, reportedly in play, despite an 11,620 vote margin from 2019.

There’s something about the candidate for Waringah

So you didn’t realise that the issue of transgender women in sport was a top five issue for this election? As with most culture wars, this topic was an electoral issue until it was made to be.

Timeline of a culture war

• Saturday 2 April – Katherine Deves announced as Liberals candidate for Waringah.

• Monday 11 April – Day 1 of the campaign, the PM proudly and proactively declares he shares her values.

• Friday April 15 – NSW Treasurer Matt Kean says “There is no place in a mainstream political party for bigotry.” Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott says he admires her.

• Saturday April 16 - PM backs Deves and says "I'm not joining that pile on."

• Sunday April 17 – Foreign Minister Marise Payne refuses to support or to condemn the candidate, saying that it is a matter for the NSW Division of the Liberal Party to decide.

• Wednesday April 20 – the Prime Minister says that Australians are “fed up with having to walk on eggshells."

To be clear, the Liberal candidate for Waringah has no hope of winning her seat. So why is the issue of trans women in sport now so high on the political agenda? Her candidacy, chosen and designed by the Prime Minister, is not for that purpose. This “captain’s pick” has been fashioned into a lightning rod to win the support of socially conservative, potential Liberal voters including in Western Sydney.