2020 QUEENSLAND DECIDES: Issue 7

8 days to go! Many are considering minority government scenarios, so C&C Co is taking a closer look at the crossbench: Their influence. Who will be elected? Who will do a deal?

But first, where have Ms Frecklington and Ms Palaszczuk been and what did they announce?

The Leaders

Leader of the Opposition

In Townsville on Wednesday Ms Frecklington announced her most significant and bold policy to-date: a trial curfew for children in Townsville and Cairns - 8pm for children aged 14 and under and 10pm for youths aged 15 to 17.

Children under 14, unaccompanied by an adult, will be taken to a refuge by police; while young people 15 to 17, without a reasonable excuse, will be taken into police custody. Their parents would be fined $250. While the scheme is to be legislated under Queensland law, it will only be implemented in Townsville and Cairns initially.

Later in the day in Cairns, she announced a $180 million to fully fund stage 1 of the Cairns University Hospital.

Back in in South East Queensland on Thursday in the LNP held electorates of Currumbin and Mudgeeraba and in Labor held Gaven, Ms Frecklington announced an additional 30,000 places in before and after state school care programs. The announcement includes free Certificate III training for childcare jobseekers; $60 million for facilities and equipment, and a further $20 million to address understaffing and to establish a coordination unit in the Department of Education.

On the Gold Coast on Friday, the Leader of the Opposition announced a $20 million investment in the Gold Coast Marina to support yacht maintenance. The announcement was made in the LNP held seat of Coomera with MP Michael Crandon and was attended by Theodore LNP MP Mark Boothman.

The Premier

At Giru, south of Townsville on Thursday the Premier announced her plan for a second Bruce Highway with Townsville Labor MPs and Mr Mike Brunker, the ALP’s candidate for Burdekin. The announcement includes $12.6 billion jointly-funded partnership with the Federal Government.

Back in town, she announced a $193 million investment in the Port of Townsville.

At Fitzroy Island, off Cairns on Thursday, Ms Palaszczuk announced $40 million to protect the Great Barrier Reef and other natural assets. The funding includes: $10 million Reef Credits initiative to drive on-ground restoration and environmental market development projects; $10 million for Reef Assist -projects in partnership with local organisations; $6 million to deliver ecotourism and acquire new protected areas; $3.9 million to develop world-class ‘sailing trails’ around Townsville and the Whitsundays; and $10.1 million for upgrades to National Parks and World Heritage Areas. The announcement was attended by ALP Cairns MP, Michael Healy and Barron River MP, Craig Crawford.

On Friday the Premier announced $31 million for new and replacement ambulance stations across the State.

The crossbench and minor parties

Queenslanders have a history of voting for and electing minor party and independent candidates. Since the State elected 11 One Nation MPs in 1998, no political commentator has been prepared to write-off minor party contenders. Minor party vote share reached a new high in 2017.

The current Parliament consists of a diverse array crossbench MPs:

• 3 Katter’s Australian Party (KAP);

• one One Nation Part (ONP);

• one North Queensland First (NQF) - expelled former LNP Member Jason Costigan;

• one Green; and

• one Independent (Sandy Bolton, Noosa).

What impact will the minor parties have on the poll outcome?

Preferences

In most races the key impact of the minor parties comes from their influence on voters’ preferencing decisions.

During counting, electoral officials re-allocate the votes of the lowest placed candidate, in rounds, until a single candidate has achieved a majority.

In these counting rounds, each vote is allocated in line with the elector’s next highest preference, at its full value. If a minor party is able to influence the preference order of an elector, they can influence the outcome of the election.

For example, let’s say a lifetime Labor voter, decides to give ONP a go. The voter decides to follow the party’s preference recommendation, which gives the LNP candidate a higher preference than the ALP. In this example One Nation has effectively delivered a vote to the LNP.

This is why preference deals are so highly sought after.

To better understand how preferences work or as our US friends know it, "ranked choice voting", have a look at this explainer from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (extracted in part at the end of this post).

The special case of Mr Palmer: electoral spending

In the special case of Mr Clive Palmer and his United Australia Party (UAP), the willingness of its national leader to spend big on election advertising provides additional influence, including double page newspaper advertisements (pictured).

At the 2019 federal poll, Mr Palmer spent $83.6 million. While he did not win a seat, he undoubtedly had an effect by amplifying an anti-Labor message. Under Queensland electoral spending limits UAP can spend up to $92,000 per electorate, which equates to over $8.5 million across the State.

UAP’s funding has mostly been donated by Mr Palmer’s company Mineralogy. Questions have been raised as to whether the company, is a prohibited donor due to its property development activities. These questions are likely to be resolved well after the completion of the 2020 election.

UAP are running in 55 seats where their preferences will be directed away from the ALP. A startling example of this is in the seat of South Brisbane where the UAP is preferencing the Greens second, presumably to maximise the potential to damage the ALP’s chances.

What have the major and minor parties said about minority government?

Ms Palaszczuk has said that she will not form a government through a deal with a minor party. There is the potential she could govern with the support of an independent such as Ms Sandy Bolton MP, Noosa.

Ms Frecklington has made a similar pledge.

According to Greens MP Michael Berkman, the party has pledged that it would not support an LNP administration to gain power.

Given Labor’s ongoing strong opposition to ONP and its commitment to preference the party last, it is extremely unlikely that the party would ever support an ALP government.

The same might be said for KAP, after the Premier withdrew some of the party’s extra parliamentary resources in 2018. This was due to the failure of Queensland KAP MPs to condemn the remarks of former KAP Senator Fraser Anning, who used the term ‘final solution’ which is reminiscent of the Nazi era, in his first speech. Mr Katter’s comments from the time can be found here.

KAP however is unlikely to let a grudge get in the way of a good deal for their constituents or their party. In the event of a hung parliament, KAP are most likely to focus on future opportunities, rather than the disagreements of the past. While Mr Katter has said supporting Labor would be hard, he has also said he would be unwise to telegraph a decision until after the election.

Similarly, Noosa Independent Sandy Bolton, who might be considered a ‘teal’ politician – a mix of conservative blue, and environmentalist green –might find it equally palatable to support the ALP or the LNP in minority government.

One point that is vitally important to remember about conservative independents and minor parties is that they have managed to gain a seat in LNP dominated territory, and this makes the LNP their key opponent.

In the event of a hung parliament, what better way for KAP or Ms Bolton to demonstrate their value to their constituencies than to deliver concessions wrought out of an ALP Government? Former Independent MP for Nicklin, Mr Peter Wellington proved the expediency of this approach when he supported the minority Beattie (1998 to 2001) and minority Palaszczuk (2015 to 2017) governments.

Of course, this approach runs the risk of conservative voters being disappointed that their MPs are supporting the ALP in government. This fate befell conservative independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott who supported the Gillard Government in the hyper-partisan period of 2010 to 2013.

Which minor parties will win seats?

Parties to the political right

A recent YouGov poll taken on 24 September provided results for “Regional Queensland” and saw ONP's primary decline by 7% since the 2017 election, while KAP’s vote dropped by 1% to 7%. A Newspoll published on 16 October indicates a drop of the ONP primary from 13.7% at the last election to 9% now. The Newspoll does not break out KAP but gives “Others” at 6%.

A statewide number is not that useful. However, if we were to infer in line with this polling, a one third reduction in the vote for ONP, then seats like Keppel, Rockhampton, Mirani and others go from being ALP v ONP contests, to become ALP v LNP contests.

Mirani, ONP’s only seat, looks highly vulnerable in these circumstances, particularly with limited involvement in the campaign from Senator Pauline Hanson so far. The seat has been solidly with the conservative side of politics back to 1947. The LNP will be cautiously hopeful of a win.

KAP holds the seats of Traeger (Leader Robbie Katter) and Hill, both with majorities of more than 19%. It is very likely they will be retained.

Mr Katter showing he is ready to 'muck-in'

The seat of Hinchinbrook may be a little more complicated. In 2017 most the vote was split 4 ways: ALP, LNP, KAP and ONP. KAP’s Nick Dametto enjoyed substantial luck in the count by staying 'alive' long enough to first benefit from ALP preferences and then to benefit from ONP preferences, taking him to a majority versus the LNP.

While the LNP candidate for Hinchinbrook appears to be staging a genuine challenge for the seat, Mr Dametto has had a term in parliament to solidify support, and a generally controversy free record – apart from regular topless selfie Instagram posts. He will also benefit from KAP’s preference deal with ONP, provided he can garner sufficient first preference support.

Finally keep an eye on Burdekin, where bookies are offering even money for the incumbent LNP and the KAP challenger.

Parties to the political left

According to Newspoll the Greens have polled 12% statewide, compared with their 2017 result of 10% at the polls. YouGov indicated an increased Brisbane region vote for the Greens from 13% at the 2017 election, to 16% now.

Greens MP Mr Michael Berkman was a surprise winner in the new seat of Maiwar in 2017. He is generally expected likely to retain the seat, though it will be a tough contest. Provided he is able to come second in the count, he will enjoy the preferences of whichever major party that comes third.

Much has been written about the South Brisbane contest, while a little less has been written about McConnell – which is based around Brisbane’s city centre. Both seats are inner city, cosmopolitan, with a high concentration of young and transient voters focused on environmental concerns.

These contests pit hard working, highly energetic and senior ALP candidates, against second and third time Greens Party challengers. The Greens will benefit from preference flows from LNP and UAP voters in both electorates. Bookmakers indicate Greens candidates as favourites.

Finally, a referential voting example

With acknowledgement to the Australian Electoral Commission, the following graphic provides a hypothetical example of a 5-candidate race.

It is necessary to undertake 3 counts in this race in order to arrive at an outcome where a candidate achieves a majority of the vote . At the final count "Rachel" achieves a majority and is elected.