2020 QUEENSLAND DECIDES: Recap

The 2020 Queensland Election result was in line with C&C Co's predicted most likely outcome.

On current projections the Government has been returned with a small increase in its majority. The ALP has secured 50 seats and is likely to win one additional seat from three still in doubt (net +3). The LNP has secured 33 and will most likely reach 35 by the end of the count (net -3).

KAP retains 3, Greens increase from one to two, PHON retains Mirani and Independent Sandy Bolton has been returned in Noosa.

Flight to safety

The price of gold is generally recognised as a barometer of economic certainty and security. In times of economic uncertainty, war and crisis, gold will appreciate markedly as it is perceived as the most reliable method for storing wealth.

In the face of the COVID-19 threat, it appears that many voters decided now is not the right time to entertain the instability that minor parties might bring to the Queensland parliament and Government. Instead voters decided that it was important to support major parties and the relative safety and security associated with this choice. In a flight to safety, voters decided the best place to store the value of their votes was in the major parties.

It appears that the ALP was the primary benefactor of this movement. PHON's vote dropped by 6.6% with the ALP picking up almost exactly two-thirds of this vote, while the LNP received the remaining third.

Elections in the time of a pandemic

Given the movement of PHON votes across the State, there appears a strong likelihood that the Government’s messaging about the pandemic was heard clearly - particularly by conservative voters.

Many voters are likely to have given close consideration to how the pandemic might affect them in their communities, with the vast majority of experience around the world that COVID-19 has either closed economies, or made open economies unsafe.

What you see is what you get

Politics is about simple messages. Messages that affect decision-making and resonate long after they have been uttered. To effect decision-making, messaging must also align with the primary concerns of the community.

Campaigns must also create ‘point of difference’ – ideally around the primary concern.

In the final days of the campaign, the Premier achieved this with the simple words, ‘Queenslanders know who I am.' At the same time she referred to the Opposition as being reckless with their calls to open the southern border.

The Premier's message clearly resonated with older and more conservative Queenslanders in seats like Hervey Bay, Pumicestone, Caloundra, Nicklin, Bundaberg, Currumbin, Burleigh and others where Labor benefitted from large swings.

The point of difference was made with clarity and simplicity, while aligning with the key issue of concern in the Queensland community.

Where to for the Government

The Caretaker period comes to an official end when the results of the election have been declared.

During the campaign the Premier made clear that the roles of the Deputy Premier, Steven Miles and Treasurer Cameron Dick were secure. With three ministerial vacancies arising as a result of resignations prior to the election, a Cabinet reshuffle is required. Under Labor Party rules, the Labor Caucus will make nominations for members of the Cabinet and the Premier will allocate portfolios.

While a Cabinet is one of the first orders of business for a returned government, possibly the Government’s most important work is to deliver a budget, expected during the week of November 30. This is an extremely short period of time for this task, and will be hampered by the ongoing uncertainty of the pandemic.

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Where to for the Opposition

The voters of Queensland, during a time of crisis, have chosen clarity and certainty.

The Leader of the Opposition, perhaps a slight favourite earlier in 2020, was simply unable to build for herself a sufficient profile during the pandemic. At the same time, her message of a ‘bold and ambitious plan for Queensland,’ appeared simply unable to gain traction, given the concerns of the electorate around safety and security. While the LNP’s infrastructure announcements clearly have merit, the election became a contest between ‘must haves’ and ‘nice-to-haves’.

Ms Frecklington will stand down as Leader and call a party room meeting to elect a new leadership team, once final seat numbers are know. Mr Mander has also said he will not run for a leadership role.

Gold Coast MP David Crisafulli has announced his candidacy for Leader. He has highlighted his discipline and energy as key attributes for the top job. Member for Toowoomba South, Mr David Janetzki and Member for Burdekin, Mr Dale Last are likely to both nominate for Deputy Leader.

The next four years will be a time of rebuilding the LNP brand at the State level. There will also likely be some soul searching around how federal representation in the State can be so strong, while the party has run the Queensland Government for only 5 years since 1989.

Outstanding races

Postal votes can be received by the ECQ until 5pm on 10 November.

While only 5 seats have been declared by the ECQ, in practical terms, there are probably only three seats remaining in doubt. Bundaberg (LNP 112 vote lead), Currumbin (LNP lead 142) and Nicklin (ALP lead 259).

Thanks

C&C Co is closing out its 2020 Queensland Decides coverage, but we'll continue to cover some of the key issues and insights in Queensland and Australian politics.

Stayed tuned!