2020 QUEENSLAND DECIDES: Issue 8

Last days: is this where the campaign gets dirty?

Over the weekend at Brisbane’s Gabba stadium, Queensland enjoyed its first AFL Grand Final, while the NRL Grand Final aired on Sunday. With many Queenslanders focused on the footy over the weekend, there was a soft start to the final week of the campaign.

Monday saw possibly hundreds of thousands of unsolicited text messages sent by Clive Palmer’s company Mineralogy. The message asked recipients to “Stop Labor’s 20% Death tax” and included a link to the party’s how-to-vote card. The message from Mr Palmer has no basis in any announcement from the ALP and has been a consistent attack line from the UAP over the course of the campaign.

The LNP released a somewhat humourous clip aimed at the Deputy Premier. It was hard to see the clip falling into the category of dirty tricks, but perhaps qualifies as immature.

Former Premier Peter Beattie intervened in the campaign in a manner which would have made his blood boil when he was in the top job. He called for Labor to open the NSW border. Deputy Premier Steven Miles retorted with the greatest insult possible and called Mr Beattie a “southerner”.

The ALP has not really "upped the ante" in response, but instead has stuck with its accusation against the Opposition that it would “cut, sack and sell” to fund its campaign commitments, along with promises to not increase taxes, and to deliver a budget surplus within four years.

Weekend polling

Seat-by-seat Newspolls were released across the weekend for Mundingburra, Pumicestone, Mansfield and South Brisbane.

According to public polls released on Friday, the LNP will win Mundingburra, while the ALP will win Mansfield, both with a 0.5% margin. In Pumicestone, the poll indicated a solid pick up for the ALP, with a margin of 4%. While two of these polling results are within the statistical margin of error, if correct they indicate no change in parliamentary representation between the parties.

However, a Newspoll in the often-discussed seat of South Brisbane, gives the seat to Greens candidate Amy McMahon with a 4.5% margin.

The odds

Betting odds being offered by Sportsbet continue to be a little ‘all over the place’ –indicating a very close race. Labor is a clear favourite to form the next government, while a hung parliament is also the favourite. At the same time, a perusal of the seat-by-seat markets provides no clarity for a pathway to power for the ALP or the LNP.

Campaigns are about data plus gut feel. Data determines target seats, the initial strategy and the campaign plan. Gut feel is where Svengali-like decision-makers shift strategy, to win the day. Alternatively, hapless leaders go ‘all-in’ and they and their teams suffer spectacularly.

With 4 days left, neither campaign is making a big shift. We can expect a frenetic close to the week as the parties work to make final impressions count.

Debates

There will be two head-to-head debates between Ms Palaszczuk and Ms Frecklington:

• a Sky News Courier Mail People’s Forum will be held on Wednesday at 4pm. The format will involve the Leaders answering questions from undecided voters.

• the traditional Queensland Media Club Leaders’ Debate will be held in Brisbane on Friday, the eve of election day.

The Leaders

The Premier

On Friday Ms Palaszczuk visited NOJA Power, an export leader in electrical switch equipment, to discuss the government’s support for businesses during COVID-19.

On Saturday the Premier visited campaign workers in her own electorate of Inala and headed to the key seat of Aspley where she opened the new Northside Wizards Basketball facility. She also announced $7.5 million for 50,000 FairPlay vouchers to assist children and their families to become involved in sports. The Premier spent Saturday evening at the Gabba for the AFL Grand Final.

On Sunday she headed to Townsville for a Labor rally event and announced a $10 million fund to support veterans.

On Monday Ms Palaszczuk was in Bowen in the seat of Burdekin, with candidate Mike Brunker. She announced a $50 million government investment to reduce the cost of water for irrigators by 50%. Back in Brisbane, Treasurer Cameron Dick released the ALP’s election costings. She also announced the her government would start to duplicate the Cairns Western Arterial Road with $60 million to build four lanes.

On Tuesday the Premier was in the seat of Whitsunday where she announced a contribution to a new Sky Rail project, and Mackay where she announced an additional $10 million investment in the hydrogen industry.

The Leader of the Opposition

On Saturday, Ms Frecklington visited key Brisbane seats of Chatsworth and Aspley as well as Caloundra, Noosa and Bundaberg, where she watched the AFL Grand Final. In Aspley she announced local roads funding.

On Sunday, in the Wide Bay Burnett region, Ms Frecklington made a $45 million commitment to invest in water infrastructure.

On Monday, Ms Frecklington was in Townsville to announce a $2 million partnership with the North Queensland Cowboys for an awareness and mental health support program creating high impact and interactive education to raise the awareness of the dangers of illicit drugs.

Ms Frecklington also promised 4440 more doctors and nurses across Queensland, including:

• 2530 nurses

• 750 doctors

• 840 allied health professionals, and

• 320 paramedics

In Mackay on Tuesday, the Leader of the Opposition announced the LNP will invest $8 million in a manufacturing innovation fund to develop new products and capability and $25,000 matching competitive grants as part of a $5 million investment fund for manufacturers seeking to invest in new information communication technology.