2020 QUEENSLAND DECIDES: Issue 5

To end the week, C&C Co takes a quick look at the Leaders’ movements and puts the Gold Coast In Focus.

The Leaders

The Leader of the Opposition headed back up North with an announcement in Townsville of a $67 million investment in the new Tropical Aquaculture Accelerator at James Cook University, while also criticising the Government on crime.

She also spent some time with the Prime Minister discussing Copper String 2.0 during a helicopter ride.

The Premier announced that if re-elected she would reopen the Rockhampton rail workshops to support her plans to re-start train manufacturing in Maryborough. She also toured the must-win seat of Keppel.

The Government has also announced further loosening of COVID-19 restrictions, including dancing at weddings and larger home gatherings.

In Focus: Gold Coast

Ms Frecklington can ill-afford to spend her time maintaining her support on the Gold Coast, as she needs to work to win seats in North and Central Queensland. For the LNP to win Government, it must retain its “Fortress Gold Coast”.

Former LNP Leader, John Paul Langbroek MP likes to call it #thefabulousgoldie. He is no doubt referring to its world’s best beaches and great lifestyle. In recent times the Gold Coast has also shown the LNP a lot of love, but its support of the conservative side of politics is not “baked in”.

Following the 2001 Beattie Landslide, the ALP held 7 of its then 10 seats. At the 2012 and 2015 elections, the LNP won a clean sweep.

Seats to watch

In 2017 the ALP’s Meaghan Scanlon managed to ‘snag’ Gaven, and has Labor’s second most marginal electorate on a 0.7% margin. Holding Gaven is key to Labor’s hopes of a majority. Ms Scanlon was promoted straight to the front bench, becoming an Assistant Minister for Tourism Industry Development.

In 2017, there was a close result in Bonney, with the LNP wining with a margin of 1.7%. Since that election, 7000 people have moved into the electorate, making the seat’s political history a poor indicator of its 2020 electoral outcome. Since his election, Mr Sam O'Connor has been an effective and energetic local campaigner. With the Greens, One Nation and UAP all running, it is a crowded field where preference flows, likely to advantage the LNP, will have a big impact.

A March 2020 by-election in Currumbin, at Queensland’s southern border, saw the LNP retain the seat with a much-reduced margin of 1.23%. Border closures may have assisted the LNP to get over the line, for an electorate closely integrated with the Tweed and northern NSW. An expanded border bubble may have taken the edge off community dissent. At the same time, Ms Laura Gerber has had an opportunity to work her electorate since becoming an MP, while Labor's candidate Ms Kaylee Campradt has remained active.

Burleigh, at the quieter, less commercialised end of the Gold Coast, was held from 2001 to 2012 by the ALP. The seat has been held since 2012 by LNP frontbencher Mr Michael Hart, who currently enjoys a solid 4.9% margin. The entry of celebrity ALP candidate Wayne “Rabbit” Bartholomew, a former world surfing champion, makes the seat an interesting contest. In 2017 the Greens picked up over 16% of the vote. Mr Bartholomew’s environmental credentials may help him to attract a greater proportion of this constituency.

Theodore on a 3.7% margin and Coomera on 3.5% look solidly in the LNP retain column, but both electorates have experienced significant growth and population movement, creating uncertainty.

Projects and Issues

The ALP has certainly not neglected the region delivering substantial commitments like the Metricon Stadium at Carrara, ongoing M1 commitments and a highly successful Commonwealth Games in 2018.

The extraordinarily popular Gold Coast Light Rail, has 2 stages up and running, a third stage awarded and a fourth stage, linking to the Airport, in planning.

The Premier has built a strong relationship with popular Mayor Cr Tom Tate, who is a lifetime member of the LNP. He has also been a supporter of border closures.

Roads spending is a key issue in the region. Last week Gold Coast business leaders, whose support the LNP would normally enjoy, voiced their opposition to some of the party’s roads planning. Gold Coast North and Central Chambers of Commerce asked the LNP to set aside its ‘second M1’ plan as ‘inferior’, while the Mayor called for a unified approach from the major parties.

Perhaps there is much heat, and there will be little fire, but the seats of Gaven, Bonney, Currumbin and Burleigh are all worth keeping an eye on.