2020 QUEENSLAND DECIDES: Issue 3

Week 1

The first week of the campaign was relatively low key. There were no game changers as both Leaders eased into their campaigns, but wasted little time to head to North and Far North Queensland, or as we like to call them: "NQ and FNQ".

The Leaders

After calling the election on Tuesday morning, following a long weekend, the Premier headed to the Port of Brisbane in the seat of Lytton, then up to Mt Isa and Townsville. The most significant Labor announcement of the week was a $100 million TAFE investment.

The Leader of the Opposition started the week on the Gold Coast, Nudgee in Brisbane and then up to Cairns and finishing the short week in Townsville. She made a defence manufacturing announcement in Cairns and spoke of the LNP's promise of a 'three strikes' policy which would make gaol compulsory for children who have committed three criminal offences.

Thursday showed promising signs that the Leaders might run into each other while campaigning in Townsville. The awkward event, a favourite for campaign watchers, alas did not come to pass.

Who can forget that fateful moment on the eve of the 2004 Federal election when the Leaders met and briefly shook hands? Mr Latham thought it was a good idea to attempt to physically intimidate Mr Howard (pictured). He was judged harshly by voters. A 2020 version where Leaders sharply thrust an 'elbow bump' seems unlikely.

Federal Intervention

Our current Prime Minister made his first and most overt campaign intervention, with an attack on Ms Palaszczuk after she reiterated that the border with NSW would stay closed until that State is able to achieve a 28-day period with no community transmission of COVID-19.

He asked of the Premier: "Is she for jobs or not?" The attack though was blunted with the unfortunate news on Thursday that there had been 8 new NSW cases of community transmission, with the likelihood of more to come. Ironically, on the same day Queensland marked 28-days of no community transmission of COVID-19.

Look out for more from the PM next week when Mr Morrison, who remains very popular in Queensland, is expected to join the LNP campaign.

More Preference News

One Nation and the Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) have agreed to place each other second-preference on 'how-to-vote' cards. The decision reflects the simpatico between the two parties and their supporters.

While making the announcement, Senator Hanson took the opportunity to note that “For the first time in political history, we’re seeing Labor and the LNP preference The Greens, which most regional Queenslanders are horrified at the thought of.”

If the drop in support for One Nation, indicated in the Courier Mail's recent YouGov Galaxy polling is reflected at the election, the agreement is likely to be of greater benefit to KAP, than One Nation.

We now turn to our first region in focus.

In Focus: Townsville Region

The Townsville region has received an extraordinary level of attention over the last three years and is continuing to ‘enjoy’ the same level of attention over the first week of the campaign.

There are two key reasons for this:

1. If the three Townsville seats continue to move ‘as a pack’ electing MPs of the same party, as they have for close to 20 years, their electors will have a profound impact on the next government.

2. The seats of Whitsunday and Burdekin to the south of Townsville, are each held by incumbents on less than a one per cent margin. The seat of Hinchinbrook to the north is held by Katter’s Australian Party MP Mick Dametto. He won the seat in 2017 with just under 21 per cent of the vote and ALP preferences.

These five seats will be high on the LNP's target list and key to their chances of forming government.

The Pledges

The LNP has promised a New Bradfield Scheme (pictured) which would commence with a more than 120 metre-high Hells Gate Dam. The promise includes a tunnel system to transport water and irrigate a region larger than Tasmania at an announced cost of $15 billion. The LNP says the scheme will ‘drought proof Western Queensland.’ Located around 100 km west of Townsville, the scheme is also promoted as a jobs driver for the region.

In September the Government commissioned its own independent expert panel to examine a new Bradfield inland irrigation scheme.

The ALP has pointed to its delivery of a range of projects for the ‘Capital of Northern Australia’, the most high-profile of which is the new Townsville stadium (pictured). It has committed to a stage 2 for the Haughton Water Pipeline with around a $200 million price tag, having recently completed and commissioned stage 1. Labor has also supported “Copperstring 2.0”, a transmission line linking the North West Minerals Province (NWMP) to the national power grid via Townsville.

Apart from jobs and the economy, youth justice and law and order have received significant local attention. The issue will continue to be a key talking point through to election day, and will mark a point of difference on policy and ideology between the two major parties.